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我国铜消费将迎来中速增长期/my country's copper consumption will usher in a period of medium growth

我国铜消费将迎来中速增长期/my country's copper consumption will usher in a period of medium growth

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  • 发布时间:2017-06-02 10:48
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【概要描述】江西铜业集团公司副总经理吴育能日前在出席“第十四届上海衍生品市场论坛江铜专场”时表示,经过多年的发展,我国铜行业正经历着澳门永利皇宫老入口登录从粗放到集约、铜加工从追求规模到追求质量、铜进口从精铜为主到原料为主、铜消费数量从高速增长到中速增长等变化,在“一带一路”战略机遇下,中国铜工业应进一步深化供给侧结构性改革,优化升级产业布局。

我国铜消费将迎来中速增长期/my country's copper consumption will usher in a period of medium growth

【概要描述】江西铜业集团公司副总经理吴育能日前在出席“第十四届上海衍生品市场论坛江铜专场”时表示,经过多年的发展,我国铜行业正经历着澳门永利皇宫老入口登录从粗放到集约、铜加工从追求规模到追求质量、铜进口从精铜为主到原料为主、铜消费数量从高速增长到中速增长等变化,在“一带一路”战略机遇下,中国铜工业应进一步深化供给侧结构性改革,优化升级产业布局。

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  • 发布时间:2017-06-02 10:48
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  江西铜业集团公司副总经理吴育能日前在出席“第十四届上海衍生品市场论坛江铜专场”时表示,经过多年的发展,我国铜行业正经历着澳门永利皇宫老入口登录从粗放到集约、铜加工从追求规模到追求质量、铜进口从精铜为主到原料为主、铜消费数量从高速增长到中速增长等变化,在“一带一路”战略机遇下,中国铜工业应进一步深化供给侧结构性改革,优化升级产业布局。

  由江西铜业集团公司主办,金瑞期货股份有限公司承办的第十四届上海衍生品市场论坛江铜专场,吸引了来自有色行业专家、有色企业代表共300余人参加会议。

  中国用铜将迎来中速增长期

  吴育能表示,中国用铜增长高速期已经过去,将迎来中速增长期。

  相关数据显示,2001至2009年中国铜消费平均增速为13%,2009至2014年平均增速为9%,2015至2016年已放缓至3%~5%。

  他认为,今后2~3年,全球对冲中国消费下滑的力量可能来自于美国重启基建、“一带一路”相关国家的投资活动等。更长周期看,印度和东南亚等新兴经济体将是下一轮增长引擎。

  而从消费领域来看,尽管传统领域正遭遇着一些应用替代,铜应用正在积极开拓新兴领域,如在海水养殖,海水淡化、新能源汽车、充电桩、太阳能集热器、空气源热泵等领域对铜的需求都在不断增加。根据国际铜业协会数据,目前海水养殖网箱市场的用铜潜力为46万吨,“十三五”期间太阳能热利用将拉动铜需求量累计达到7万吨;2020年空气源热泵将实现年均5万吨以上新增市场;此外,在国家政策的推动下,预计到2020年,纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车累计产销量将超过500万辆,新能源汽车届时将带动40万吨铜消费;充电桩的建设将带动铜消费至少8万吨。

  “一带一路”战略带来铜产业发展机遇

  吴育能表示,“一带一路”国家目前铜需求较小,但矿产资源较为丰富,中国原料对外依存度高,需求量大,可资源互补。“一带一路”沿线大部分国家的铜矿业开发落后,但中国在铜采、选、冶方面的工艺技术和装备已达到世界先进水平,可技术互补。“一带一路”战略为铜工业带来了巨大的空间和发展机遇,有助于提升我国资源保障度,同时有色企业在“一带一路”建设中也大有可为。

  “我国铜资源匮乏,对外依存度达到70%以上,铜企应该积极‘走出去’,提早布局海外优势矿山资源。”吴育能表示,中国目前获得的境外资源仍主要位于南美和非洲区域,而“一带一路”沿线资源开发潜力巨大,其中哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、印尼等国铜矿资源丰富,资源储备在全球排名靠前,铜企应该积极“走出去”,未来资源布局更多向中东欧、中亚以及东南亚等“一带一路”沿线倾斜进行布局。同时,要促进优势产能“走出去”,本着靠近资源、靠近消费的原则,在境外提早布局优势冶炼和加工能力。

  深化供给侧结构性改革优化产业布局

  除积极“走出去”,积极布局海外市场外,吴育能指出,目前中国铜行业还存在产业集中度较低,铜矿资源、冶炼产能、加工能力分布不对称等问题,也应提升集中度,严控产能无序扩张,进一步优化升级产业布局。

  资料显示,我国铜矿资源分布广泛,在已查明的矿产地除天津以外的所有省市均有不同程度分布,而精铜生产地集中在华东地区,铜的主要消费地在华东和华南地区。

  吴育能认为,最优布局应是冶炼靠近资源地、靠近港口,提升效益;加工产能靠近消费地,提升效率。以日本为例,冶炼厂全部分布在沿海地区,方便运输,但中国70%左右冶炼产能在内陆地区,运输成本高,金属损失量大,需积累库存保证生产,铜矿资源与冶炼产能分布不对称,应进一步优化升级产业布局。

  供给侧结构性改革是中国“十三五”期间经济改革的关键、重点。吴育能强调,铜产业应积极深化供给侧结构性改革——淘汰落后产能,退出过剩产能,关停亏损产能,从严控制新建澳门永利皇宫老入口登录项目和中低端铜杆线及板带项目;同时,严格落实国家环保和能耗政策,提升产业集中度,鼓励龙头企业通过兼并重组做优做强。

 

  Wu Yuneng, deputy general manager of Jiangxi Copper Group Corporation, recently attended the "14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum Jiangxi Copper Special Session" and said that after years of development, my country’s copper industry is experiencing a transition from extensive copper smelting to copper smelting. Intensive, copper processing changes from the pursuit of scale to the pursuit of quality, copper imports from refined copper to raw materials, and copper consumption from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth. Under the strategic opportunity of "One Belt One Road", China's copper industry The supply-side structural reform should be further deepened, and the industrial layout should be optimized and upgraded.

   The Jiangxi Copper Special Session of the 14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum hosted by Jiangxi Copper Group Corporation and undertaken by Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd. attracted more than 300 people from non-ferrous industry experts and representatives of non-ferrous enterprises.

   China's copper consumption will usher in a period of medium-speed growth

  Wu Yuneng said that the period of high-speed growth of copper consumption in China has passed, and a period of medium-speed growth will be ushered in.

  Related data show that the average growth rate of copper consumption in China from 2001 to 2009 was 13%, and the average growth rate from 2009 to 2014 was 9%, and from 2015 to 2016 it has slowed to 3%~5%.

   He believes that in the next two to three years, the global force to hedge against the decline in China’s consumption may come from the United States’ reopening of infrastructure and the “Belt and Road” investment activities in related countries. In the longer term, emerging economies such as India and Southeast Asia will be the next growth engines.

   From the perspective of the consumer field, although traditional fields are experiencing some application substitutions, copper applications are actively exploring emerging fields, such as marine aquaculture, seawater desalination, new energy vehicles, charging piles, solar collectors, and air sources. The demand for copper in areas such as heat pumps is increasing. According to the data of the International Copper Association, the current copper use potential in the marine aquaculture cage market is 460,000 tons. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, solar thermal utilization will drive the cumulative copper demand to 70,000 tons; in 2020, air source heat pumps will To achieve an average annual new market of more than 50,000 tons; in addition, under the promotion of national policies, it is expected that by 2020, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will exceed 5 million, and new energy vehicles will be driven by that time 400,000 tons of copper consumption; the construction of charging piles will drive copper consumption at least 80,000 tons.

  “The Belt and Road Initiative” strategy brings copper industry development opportunities

  Wu Yuneng said, "One Belt One Road" the country currently has a small demand for copper, but it has abundant mineral resources. China has a high degree of dependence on foreign raw materials and a large demand, which can complement resources. The development of copper mining in most countries along the "Belt and Road" is backward, but China's copper mining, processing, and smelting process technology and equipment have reached the world's advanced level, and technology can complement each other. The "One Belt, One Road" strategy has brought huge space and development opportunities to the copper industry, which will help improve my country's resource security. At the same time, non-ferrous enterprises have a lot to do in the construction of the "One Belt, One Road".

  “my country's copper resources are scarce, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 70%. Copper companies should actively ‘go out’ and deploy overseas advantageous mine resources early. "Wu Yuneng said that China's current overseas resources are still mainly located in South America and Africa, while the "Belt and Road" has great potential for resource development. Among them, Kazakhstan, Russia, Indonesia and other countries have rich copper resources, and resource reserves are global In the top rankings, copper companies should actively "go out", and in the future, the resource layout will be more inclined to deploy along the "Belt and Road" routes in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Southeast Asia. At the same time, it is necessary to promote the advantage of production capacity “going out”, based on the principle of being close to resources and close to consumption, and early deployment of advantageous smelting and processing capabilities abroad.

   Deepen the supply-side structural reform and optimize the industrial layout

  In addition to actively "going out" and actively deploying overseas markets, Wu Yuneng pointed out that the current Chinese copper industry still has a low industrial concentration, and the distribution of copper resources, smelting capacity, and processing capacity is not symmetrical. Increase concentration, strictly control the disorderly expansion of production capacity, and further optimize and upgrade the industrial layout.

  Data shows that my country’s copper resources are widely distributed, and are distributed to varying degrees in all provinces and cities except Tianjin. The refined copper production areas are concentrated in East China, and the main copper consumption areas are in East China. And South China.

  Wu Yuneng believes that the optimal layout should be that smelting is close to resource areas and ports to increase efficiency; processing capacity is close to consumption areas to increase efficiency. Take Japan as an example. All smelters are located in coastal areas, which is convenient for transportation. However, about 70% of China's smelting capacity is in inland areas, transportation costs are high, and metal losses are large, and inventory must be accumulated to ensure production. Copper resources and smelting capacity distribution Asymmetry, the industrial layout should be further optimized and upgraded.

  Supply-side structural reform is the key and focus of China's economic reform during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. Wu Yuneng emphasized that the copper industry should actively deepen supply-side structural reforms—eliminate outdated production capacity, exit excess production capacity, shut down loss-making production capacity, and strictly control new copper smelting projects and low-end copper rod, wire and strip projects; at the same time , Strictly implement the national environmental protection and energy consumption policies, increase industrial concentration, and encourage leading companies to become better and stronger through mergers and reorganizations.

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